It seems a long time ago in June 2016 that over 17,4 million Britons voted, through a fog of emotion, frustration, nationalism and ignorance for the United Kingdom to leave the world’s largest and most successful peace and trading project after over 40 years.
Since that time, two words have dominated business and political planning – Brexit and uncertainty.
Sometimes joked as the worse decision since Geri Halliwell decided to leave the Spice Girls, Brexit has hurt already: according to the Bank of England since June 2016, the UK economy had lost about 2% of GDP compared with a scenario Britain had voted to remain.
No security for EU citizens
As businesses have looked to scenario plan and prepare for possible outcomes, nearly 5 million people (1.5 UK nationals living in EU and 3.2 EU nationals living and working in UK), including myself have been waiting and hoping for an indication of certainty which, a few days before we leave the next default “no-deal” Brexit is not still clear.
What gives me comfort is an early commitment from the UK and EU that the rights and status of citizens must be protected as far as possible. However in the case of a non-deal, “hard” Brexit, nothing is written, nothing is agreed. My right to live, work, receive healthcare and own property in the EU is based solely on the United Kingdom being part of the Union.
Different protective measures
In the UK, EU citizens and their families can apply to the EU Settlement Scheme to continue living in the UK after 30 June 2021 to receive a “settled status” if they have been living in UK before 12th April.
In the EU, the safeguards for citizens vary per country. In the Czech Republic a law has been passed to mirror the UK’s programme of settled status, in Austria UK nationals will have to apply for a residence permit within 6 months of Brexit.
What happens in Ireland?
Let’s not forget the 6.5 million people living in Ireland and Northern Ireland of whom effectively none wanted Brexit and are facing the highest impact to their trade due to the prospect of creating a border that would complicate trade and normal lives beyond reason and cast the island back into the memories of the horrors of the past.
Prevention of no-deal Brexit
So, the big question of what will happen?
I am encouraged by an implicit recognition on both sides of the English Channel that a no-deal Brexit is simply too damaging for everyone and by the moves taken by the UK parliament to legally prohibit this outcome. I hope and expect the EU (now in effective control of the process) to enforce a long but flexible extension period in order to move to a new relationship that will maintain frictionless trade and the rights of citizens probably under a new Prime Minister and possibly government, but I do not forsee a second referendum.
The extension to the “Halloween” Brexit date of 31st October decided by the EU this week avoids the imminent and catastrophic no-deal scenario and allows the UK time for a cross-party agreement on the an exit strategy and for a probable Conservative leadership contest or a possible general election. It also means that the UK will participate in EU elections next month.
The decision to hold the referendum was reckless and the effects of the negligence and deception displayed by both sides of the remain/leave campaigns will be felt for generations to come. However future lies with the young and being European, although not a nationality is certainly an identify that no political crisis can threaten.
Author: Andrew Dickson, International Liason Director